“Throughout history, conflict had always broken out between enemies when the appearance of deterrence—the material and spiritual likelihood of using greater military power successfully against an aggressive enemy—vanished. From Carthage to the Confederacy, weaker bellicose states could convince themselves of the impossible because their fantasies were not checked earlier by cold reality”.
The Second World Wars: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won by Victor Davis Hanson
The whole of the Mediterranean area, and not only, is in a state of Geostrategic confusion.
Two interlinked parameters, the Great Energy shift and the abandonment of the Middle East by the United States are causing enough instability to allow lesser States to attempt Geostrategic moves that were never even imagined since the end of the Second World War.
Although there are many examples of surrealistic events, two are enough to highlight the present state of international affairs in the Region.
The Turks shot down intentionally a Russian military plane and, subsequently, the two Countries approached each other to the extent of coordinated military action with Russia additionally providing to Turkey, a NATO member, one of the most technologically advanced anti-aircraft systems, the S-400.
Recently Iran’s theocratic Rulers stated officially that their missiles can now hit Israel and Western Europe with chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and there was no public reaction from the West. The statement was ignored by most western media as the concerned Governments choose to downplay the threat.
Crowd fundamentalism, populism, and ultranationalism allowed frenzied dictatorial leaders like Erdogan, Khamenei, Kim Yong Un, Lukashenko, Al Baghdadi, and others to feign a type of madness that was a valuable asset in the geopolitical poker of the 21st Century.
The present reaction of the West is the same as that of the 1930-38 period.
Japan was allowed then to have its own “sphere of influence”, massacring Chinese and Koreans, Mussolini was allowed to gas Ethiopians, Franco was allowed to bleed and take over democratic Spain after a war by representatives and America adopted the most Isolationist attitude in its History.
When Erdogan intervenes in Libya, Syria, and the East Med, the Western Democracies appear again as appeasers.
In the meantime, the Muslim Brothers are active in Libya, Yemen, Egypt, and elsewhere funded by the “partner” of the West, Qatar and supported by Turkey with documents and arms.
Trump likes Erdogan, ignoring his own NSC and State Department,
Germany takes equal distances from its European partner Greece and its Economic partner, Turkey,
Spain is trying to support Turkey to which its Banks are exposed to the tune of $60 billion and Italy protects both its Turkish interests and its Mediterranean Influence which is opportunistically challenged by the French President Macron.
Russia is benefiting from all the Geostrategic mistakes of the West and, like the Soviet Union in the thirties, does not see the Strategic because of the Tactical.
Nobody takes the European Union seriously because there is simply no United European Union to look after its Geopolitical interests.
No European Democracy reacts when Iran threatens to use ballistic missiles against them or when Iran publicly states that it is building a nuclear bomb.
They still try to save the Iran-Obama nuclear agreement
Additionally, Europe chose to disarm now for a generation.
Europe can only project the shadow of military power for as long as France tries to stay important in the Med, an attempt which is systematically eroded by its European partners, Germany, Italy, and Spain.
The present lull will not last. New flare-ups will appear.
Where all is going to end?
It will end in War.
And then the “Democracies” will blame again the shortsightedness of their then rulers.
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