There is a characteristic virtue of the German Psyche. It is its tenacity in Defense against overwhelming odds.
History has ample proof of it, from the trenches of the 1st WW to the children defending Berlin in 1945.
German competence, linked to an unwavering adherence, to a previously decided plan allows no flexibility that may lead to compromise.
One such adherence is the adherence of Germany to their economic/financial dogma. This is a dogma that has for Germans all the virtues that led to the Economic Miracle of post-war Germany.
The other part of the miracle’s cause, the Marshall plan that poured the necessary billions into the ruins of Germany to redevelop its Economy and Social tissue, is conveniently forgotten.
The Americans accepted reason instead of the winners’ cult which is to dine surrounded by the bodies of dead enemies.
Reason dictated that America should not be the only rich Country in a heap of Bankrupted States, as this would threaten not only its wealth but also its security.
It is not because of generosity that Americans poured the Marshall billions to Europe.
It was that reason dictated their Strategy of rehabilitation of the defeated because a clear vision, unhindered by culture and dogma, showed where their self-interest rested.
The financial and economic culture dogma of Germany that led to its primacy in Europe and turned military defeat into Economic and Political victory cannot, in the German methodological adherence to it, be sidestepped.
German culture makes no such allowances.
The day that Coronavirus cases in Europe exceeded that of China many times over, that day Germany did not accept a common front against the virus for financial reasons.
It is preferable in the German cult to suffer deeply a pandemic than to deviate from its economic dogma even if that is going to cost the ruin of Europe, Germany included.
Macron is fighting for Europe as the key to French survival. Merkel is fighting for the German Economy even if Germany is lost with the rest of Europe.
While the pandemic ravages Europe, its leaders spent the 26th of March summit arguing over whether a joint communique would hint at financial burden-sharing as a way to repair the damage to their economies.
ECB with France, Italy, Spain, and many other European Union members tried to create a bailout fund that would eventually lead to the only solution possible, the centralization and hence mutualization of European States debt.
In a replay of similar divisions during the sovereign debt crisis 10 years ago that almost demolished the European Union, the bailout fund met the German/Dutch wall.
The irrational is not only happening in Europe.
The day that Coronavirus cases in the US surpassed those of China’s, and 3.3 million Americans became unemployed, a record five times as big as the unemployed caused by the Lehman Brothers collapse, was the same day that in Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its biggest three-day gain since 1931.
There are some remarkable days in History.
The 26th of March is going to be referred to as the day that the Leadership of the World decided to ignore the emerging virus holocaust and design its own Götterdämmerung.
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Copyright © 2019 Kassandros. All rights reserved.
Reproduction permitted provided the author www.kassandros.gr is mentioned.
Side note: we should be careful of brandishing such words as holocaust, this is not a human on human deaths, let us not do a Trump and humanise transmission.
The real issue is that this virus would decimate our health services through attrition in the medical staff and making survival choices we have never had to make as populations in living memory. Realistically we have handed our governments the task to play God and not let us die from something very new. Something is driving us collectively to make such sweeping decisions on upending our economies to save our health from this one specific disease which in by itself does not appear to be THE killer one (but certainly not benign either), and my view is that it is the perfect confluence of fear (medical) and QE (financial).
Fear: when this all dies down and statisticians make their calculations, we will come up with a rough estimate of lives saved and money spend doing so. My guess is we will end up somewhere in the $1-3mln range in the Western world, clearly unsustainable by anyone’s calculations. After all we still have the flu and cancer to deal with and no one is suggesting to apply such financial metrics to any other disease.
QE: the real consequences is that EVERY government is now engaged in pork barrel politics under the guise of economic salvation and will swamp the world with liquidity once again, this virus conveniently resets massive government debts that have been accumulated over the past decade. That is because last time around governments pumped liquidity through the debt channels and at the highest corporate level, with limited trickle down effect. What was leveraged back then was moved to the government balance sheets which are way more leveraged now, hence any external shock has even less of a buffer than before. The Germans are all too aware of this and have been fighting a rearguard action to stop the ECB or at least to limits its Euro issuance and bond buying programmes. It would help if the Euro had been set at a different level to the Deutschmark or the Germany was paying A LOT MORE in intra EU transfers. As things stands, it is a black hole exporting to the rest of the EU and sucking in all the periphery’s wealth.
This time it will likely be through a “C19 New Deal” direct to businesses and consumers, the financial sector being seen as too toxic post the GFC. It will happen in the USA and the UK, it is a question of how much in the EU and will as usual be more limited by the Germans.
If Greeks are not happy, next time go back to the Drachma. It would not save the situation, it would just make Greeks Masters of their own destiny for better or for worse, but if Greeks choose the EU and Euro, you need to know what goes with the package.