DISRUPTION FROM GERMANY

In the last 150 years, the major geopolitical disruptions in the World stemmed from German Geostrategic choices. 

This is happening once again.

After the Franco-Prussian war 1870-71, Chancellor Bismarck was astute enough to understand that the prosperity of German Society depended much more on forging alliances and excellent Diplomacy than throwing about the weight of an indeed very powerful Germany.

Bismarck’s successors opted for the Power option in their geostrategic choices.

They chose to disconnect from the international environment and instead of influencing it to impose on it.

Germany humiliated and marginalized after two World wars in which it was the primary cause, bowed to the West in exchange for its protection against the omnivorous USSR.

The USSR collapsed and Germany was reunified in 1990.

It took 25 years for Kaiser Wilhelm II (Former German Emperor) to destroy the Bismarckian legacy and start the dark period of German History that lasted almost half a Century.

It took 30 years for the German elite to take the road to perdition again now.

Germany in the last very few years made its great Geostrategic turn.

It abandoned the cohabitation with the rest of the West and became independent, shifting Geopolitically towards Asia and imposing its modus vivendi to an apathetic European Union.

Libya is an example.

Why Germany, a non-Mediterranean Country, decided to handle the Libyan Civil War in coordination with Russia, that has specific designs in the Mediterranean and Turkey, that is quarreling with all its neighbors and has no legitimate reason to be involved in Libyan affairs, is a mystery.

More perplexing since this is done in the absence of the United States and the presence of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

This is a diplomatic slap in the face of Israel, Greece, Cyprus and most of all France and other Mediterranean Countries that have vital political interests in the area, more important than the commercial interests of Germany.

Turkey is aligning and supporting the Muslim Brothers and the Islamic State by exporting Syrian ISIS fighters to Libya.

This comes at a difficult time for mainly Muslim areas of north and west Africa. Fighters allied to Islamic State and al-Qaeda are moving through Libya to carry out attacks in a wide area.

French and UN forces have been unable to stem the tide.

France indicated its displeasure for the Berlin initiative but was ignored by Germany.

Germany is essentially strengthening the Russian presence in the Mediterranean and legalizing the Turkish pro-Al -Qaeda activities.

“If Libya could become a second Syria, I believe the Libyan people will benefit from this”, Lavrov said at a press conference.

Turkey is developing its dynamic presence in Libya using the Muslim Brotherhood and transferring jihadist militias from Syria to Libya as political and military proxies.

The United States, already displaced in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon by the actions of their opponents, is about to be displaced from Libya by the actions of its ally, Germany.

This is an unprecedented international action by German Foreign Policy.

The main reason for this German choice is not even political.
Germany is aiming at a continuous increase in Economic and Financial relations with both Russia and Turkey.
Since Germany essentially dominates the European Union, it can freely infringe on the interests of other EU States.

This is not the major shift in German Geostrategy.

The major shift is that Germany is abandoning its relationship with the US to the benefit of its continuously increasing relationship with China.

Germany is Turkey’s most important trade partner and its largest foreign investor. The Trade volume is about 40 billion Euros.

China is Germany’s most important trading partner with a Trade volume of almost 200 billion euros.

For this level of Business, Germany is willing to go it alone, ignoring political obligations both to the US and the EU.

In the Mediterranean with Armageddon just around the corner, to try and lead events without deep knowledge of them and any tradition of diplomatic, colonial or other presence in the area is an act of political irrelevance and vanity.

The alignment of Germany with China is a much more important geostrategic event, particularly because it is gravely detrimental to United States interests.
China’s technological and production prowess threatens directly American military and economic strength.

The biggest geopolitical event of the 21st Century is the confrontation between the US and China.
Germany enters this fray by abandoning its, up to now, US ally for the benefit of its opponent, China.

All this is done without any vital German interests at stake.

This is the crux of the problem. German ingrained political insensitivity that was expressed in the past through military strength is now expressed through economic strength.

Germany used the American defensive umbrella, freeloading inside NATO for the last 30 years and the European Political/Economic umbrella by pretending it was just another European State, to achieve its unhindered economic growth.

It now feels that it has the size to play with the big boys.
The problem is that Germany is almost the size.

The difference between having a critical mass and almost having it is that in the first case, a detonation is achieved and in the second case, it is just a fizzle.

The fizzle gives an adequate warning that in the future a detonation is possible and that the forces must intervene before it.

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